I expected a British firm involved in global economic analysis, the continuation of the impact of political risk on the Iraqi economy during the next 2014.
While it has not ruled out the return of authoritarian rule and sectarian conflict or fragmentation of the country over the next decade, likely not to impede the economic advancement of the country, and promised that the main factor for stability is to protect the interests of the various ethnic communities in the country through the federal government.
It came in a quarterly report, the new released by Business Monitor Anturnashinal BMI British, on monitoring and analysis of global economic and trade, on the prospects for the commercial sector and economic situation in Iraq during the first quarter of 2014, the next, according to the report Market Raserg MARKET RESEARCH economic news.
They expected the institution at the beginning of the report, “the possibility of continuing the escalation of political risk impact on the economic side, during the year 2014 the next, since it could result in political rivalries to obstruct the establishment of parliamentary elections, the timing nor specified in the April 2014 next,” likely “the possibility of the political blocs in the country to the kind of agreement that would prevent the country from sliding into a civil war with no overall increase in rates of exclusion of sectarian violence. ”
And suggested the British establishment, that “facing the stability of Iraq, several challenges over the next decade,” did not rule out “the return of authoritarian rule and sectarian conflict or fragmentation of the country,” usually that “the main factor to prevent this from happening and to achieve stability is to protect the interests of the various ethnic communities in the country through federal government. ”
According to the report, that even “if avert Iraq these scenarios are negative, it is likely to remain the country’s fragmented political for a period of time even though it may not impede the process of economic recovery,” indicating that “the rate of growth of the Iraqi economy will be 10.6% and 9.2% in normal conditions during 2013 and 2014, respectively, with the survival of private consumption and oil exports as the main engine of economic growth in the coming years, and that the risks surrounding this outlook lies in the deterioration of security resulting from the increased rates of political violence. ”
And on the expansions that may get in the fiscal policy of the country during the year 2014 the next, predicted Foundation Business Monitor Anturnashinal, also “get a surplus in the financial account of Iraq by 1.9% and 1.8% of GDP, the GDP during the years 2014 and 2015, the next two, respectively, with Baltazaad spending rates continue at an accelerated pace, and determine the breadth of capital spending resulting from a lack of budgetary allocation rates. ”
They believed the British establishment, that “the rate of consumer price inflation in the country will increase from 1.8% during the year 2013 the current to 4.4% during the year 2014 the next, and his inclusion in property prices with expectations of continuing the graph of inflation to rise in the country during the coming quarters,” she said that “the rate of output GDP of the country’s GDP will prove at the rate of 7.3% during the next ten years, from 2013 to 2022, coupled with increasing political stability, and to keep oil and gas sector artery that keeps this time of economic growth in the country. ” It is noteworthy that the graph of violence in Iraq continued to rise during the current year 2013, especially after the killing of about eight thousand people, called on the United Nations estimated to be considered the deadliest since 2008 last year, amid worsening chronic political crisis in the country.